On the soon to be declassified NIE

Transcript of the Bush/Karzai press conference, AP:

Q: Thank you, sir.

Even after hearing that one of the major conclusions of the national intelligence estimate in April was that the Iraq war has fueled terror growth around the world, why have you continued to say that the Iraq war has made this country safer?

And to President Karzai, if I might: What do you think of President Musharraf's comments, that you need to get to know your own country better when you're talking about where terror threats and the Taliban threat is coming from?

BUSH: You want to start?

KARZAI: Go ahead, please.

BUSH: I, of course, read the key judgments on the NIE. I agree with their conclusion that, because of our successes against the leadership of al-Qaida, the enemy is becoming more diffuse and independent.

I'm not surprised the enemy is exploiting the situation in Iraq and using it as a propaganda tool to try to recruit more people to their murderous ways.

Some people have, you know, guessed what's in the report and have concluded that going into Iraq was a mistake. I strongly disagree. I think it's naive. I think it's a mistake for people to believe that going on the offense against people that want to do harm to the American people makes us less safe.

The terrorists fight us in Iraq for a reason; they want to try to stop a young democracy from developing, just like they're trying to fight this young democracy in Afghanistan.

And they use it as a recruitment tool because they understand the stakes. They understand what will happen to them when we defeat them in Iraq.

You know, to suggest that if we weren't in Iraq we would see a rosier scenario, with fewer extremists joining the radical movement, requires us to ignore 20 years of experience.

We weren't in Iraq when we got attacked on September the 11th. We weren't in Iraq and thousands of fighters were trained in terror camps inside your country, Mr. President. We weren't in Iraq when they first attacked the World Trade Center in 1993.

KARZAI: Yes, sir.

BUSH: We weren't in Iraq when they bombed the Cole.

KARZAI: Yes, sir.

BUSH: We weren't in Iraq when they blew up our embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

My judgment is, if we weren't in Iraq, they'd find some other excuse, because they have ambitions. They kill in order to achieve their objectives.

You know, in the past, Osama bin Laden used Somalia as an excuse for people to join his jihadist movement.

In the past, they used the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It was a convenient way to try to recruit people to their jihadist movement.

They've used all kinds of excuses.

This government is going to do whatever it takes to protect this homeland. We're not going to let their excuses stop us from staying on the offense.

The best way to protect America is to defeat these killers overseas so we do not have to face them here at home.

We're not going to let lies and propaganda by the enemy dictate how we win this war.

Now, you know what's interesting about the NIE? It was an intelligence report done last April. As I understand, the conclusions -- the evidence on the conclusions reached was stopped being gathered on February -- at the end of February.

And here we are coming down the stretch in an election campaign and it's on the front page of your newspapers. Isn't that interesting? Somebody's taken it upon themselves to leak classified information for political purposes.

I talked to John Negroponte today, the DNI. You know, I think it's a bad habit for our government to declassify every time there's a leak, because it means it's going to be hard to get good product out of our analysts. Those of you who've been around here long enough know what I'm talking about.

But once again there's a leak out of our government, coming right down the stretch in this campaign in order to create confusion in the minds of the American people.

In my judgment, that's why they leaked it.

And so we're going to -- I told the DNI to declassify this document. You can read it for yourself. It will stop all the speculation, all the politics about somebody saying something about Iraq; you know, somebody trying to confuse the American people about the nature of this enemy.

And so John Negroponte, the DNI, is going to declassify the document as quickly as possible -- declassify the key judgments for you to read yourself.

And he'll do so in such a way that we'll be able to protect sources and methods of -- that our intelligence community uses.

And then everybody can draw their own conclusions about what the report says.

Thank you.

I would like to stress this part of his response:

You know, to suggest that if we weren't in Iraq we would see a rosier scenario, with fewer extremists joining the radical movement, requires us to ignore 20 years of experience.

[...]

My judgment is, if we weren't in Iraq, they'd find some other excuse, because they have ambitions. They kill in order to achieve their objectives.

You know, in the past, Osama bin Laden used Somalia as an excuse for people to join his jihadist movement.

In the past, they used the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It was a convenient way to try to recruit people to their jihadist movement.

They've used all kinds of excuses.

It is true that bin Laden and Zawahiri use a broad anti-Western political narrative to recruit individuals and motivate those already in their ranks. That is beyond dispute. What is at issue is that the battleground in Iraq has drawn both experienced jihadists (ones that were part of that 20 [more like 30] year tradition that lead to 9/11) and a new generation of jihadists. Michael Ware of CNN says that there are hundreds or perhaps thousands of new recruits for al Qaeda in Iraq. Ware appeared on yesterday's broadcast of the Situation Room:

BLITZER: More now on the top story. A super-secret report that says the war in Iraq is making America less safe. The White House say there's more to the story. But what are the conditions on the ground?

And joining us now from Baghdad, our correspondent, Michael Ware. Michael, you're very familiar now with all these reports of this new U.S. national intelligence estimate report suggesting that the fighting in Iraq over the past three-plus years have made the worldwide terrorism situation against the United States even worse. You have covered al Qaeda extensively over these three years, mostly in Iraq. Give us your perspective.

MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, in terms of the content of the report, Wolf, it is absolutely right. The facts outlined in that document have been self evident on the ground here. At least since 2004. We saw Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the terrorist leader, arrive in Iraq in the summer of 2003 with the bombings of the Jordanian embassy and the U.N. headquarters.

He followed that the next summer by release of a suicide video. It was his grand declaration of arrival and at that time, it was becoming evident that this local fight was being hijacked and internationalized and coincidentally, Wolf, though the document not released until April to the committee, they first started writing it back then in 2004. Wolf?

BLITZER: Is the al Qaeda and related threats from other associated terrorist groups in Iraq today greater against the United States than it was two, three years ago?

WARE: There is absolutely no question about that. They are bigger. They are more sophisticated. They are more adept at countering the U.S. military. They're so proficient at replacing and replenishing any material or personnel that they lose either through arrest or kidnap or seizure. These guys are spreading and growing. They have hundreds, if not thousands, of new Iraqi recruits. They certainly did not have two years ago. And they did not have when Saddam ruled this country. And we're see a proliferation of these groups, like minded ones springing up and joining the cause. Wolf?

BLITZER: Are U.S. troops and U.S. officials, U.S. diplomats, government workers, contractors, are they safer in Iraq today than they were a year ago?

WARE: Oh, absolutely not. I mean, not that anyone was safe a year anyway. I mean, we look back on the days of the summer of 2003 when there was still relative freedom of movement like it was some hellion time.

I mean since then, this situation in this country has done nothing, Wolf, but deteriorate. The threat has become greater on all sides, from a variety of directions. Al Qaeda, the local insurgency, the militias. The death squads buried within this government, to Iranian influence. All of it has just spiralled deeper and deeper out of control, adding to the risk to every single American here. And indirectly, ultimately, leading to a greater threat against Americans across the world, Wolf.

Let us phrase the question like this: have we prevented al Qaeda from establishing 1.) a potent narrative to attack the United States and its allies and 2.) a section of territory to use for violent attacks?

1.) There have been, in addition to tragic Salafist attacks against Shiite Iraqis and coalition forces, attacks in Jordan, Spain and London which can all be linked to, in part, the war in Iraq. We should also take into account the threat of failure in Iraq (or some sort of partial success, or abdication of United States involvement) leading to future jihads around the world. The Afghan jihad, after all, lead to 9/11. You can read more about that connection as a mode to interpret Iraq in the November issue of Foreign Affairs.

2.) There are not enough American (or Iraqi) troops in al Anbar to fight the insurgency. Colonel Devlin has reported, as found in the Washington Post, that:

Devlin reports that there are no functioning Iraqi government institutions in Anbar, leaving a vacuum that has been filled by the insurgent group al-Qaeda in Iraq, which has become the province's most significant political force, said the Army officer, who has read the report. Another person familiar with the report said it describes Anbar as beyond repair; a third said it concludes that the United States has lost in Anbar.

Devlin offers a series of reasons for the situation, including a lack of U.S. and Iraqi troops, a problem that has dogged commanders since the fall of Baghdad more than three years ago, said people who have read it. These people said he reported that not only are military operations facing a stalemate, unable to extend and sustain security beyond the perimeters of their bases, but also local governments in the province have collapsed and the weak central government has almost no presence.