Friday, November 03, 2006

Sectarian violence continues at alarming pace

We know the metrics that the military is using to evaluate the situation in Iraq (my emphasis) :
There are four "key reads" in this peace to chaos spectrum.

1. Political/religious leaders increase public hostile rhetoric
2. Political/religious leaders lose moderating influence over constituents
3. Provocative sectarian attacks/assassinations
4. Unorganized spontaneous mass civil conflict

There are ten additional indicators.

1. Militias expand security role
2. Governance
3. Police ineffectual
4. Army ineffectual
5. Neighbors enable violence
6. Sectarian tensions/violence displace population

7. Sectarian conflicts between/within ISF forces
8. ISF refuse to take orders from central government, mass desertion
9. Kurdish accelerate moves toward secession/annexing Kirkuk
10. Low level violence motivated by sectarian differences
BBC News:
Baghdad police say they have found 56 bodies, some showing signs of torture, in various locations around the city in the past 24 hours.

Correspondents say many were probably victims of sectarian attacks, while others could have been targeted by criminal gangs seeking ransoms.


Blogger mikevotes said...

We know about the allegations that the Iranians and Syrians are fuelling their repective sides in the civil war, but have you seen anything on Saudi or Jordan?

Jordan is currently housing alot of the Sunni tribal leadership (the US has been shuttling there for negotiations) but I haven't seen anything on direct aid.

But more, I've seen a couple of backhanded mentions that the Saudis(through non attributable princes) have been giving money to some of the mainstraem Sunnis, but haven't seen anything concrete and attributable.

Just curious.


4:53 PM  
Blogger copy editor said...

I haven't seen much on either country. I know Jodranian security/intelligence agencies were working close with coalition powers to get Zarqawi after the Hotel/Wedding bombing. The Saudi idea seems plausible as it is that family's m.o.

4:59 PM  
Blogger mikevotes said...

I forgot about the overt Jordanian cooperation.

And, on the Saudis, that's how they worked the Osama, the madrassa, and the anti Afghanistan monies.

Cool. Have a great weekend.

7:35 PM  

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