"Between the Idea and the Reality"

"Warfare is the greatest affair of state, the basis of life and death, the Way to survival or extinction. It must be thoroughly pondered and analyzed."- Sun Tzu

Reporters for the Observer called this war the strangest in Israel's history. Now, the strange war is apparently on its last legs (until it starts up again). This last phase before the ceasefire appears to be particularly brutal. Israel has about 30,000 troops in Lebanon. Suburbs of Beirut remain the target of bombers. Hezbollah has launched about 230 rockets into Israel. I guess in a few more hours, there will be an end to bombing and rocket fire. From there it is anyone's guess.

Andrew Sullivan links to this TIME quote of the day:

“You cannot lead an entire nation to war promising victory, produce humiliating defeat and remain in power.” — Haaretz columnist Ari Shavit

I still feel we are at a "peace in our time" moment. Israeli PM Olmert vowed to destroy Hezbollah. Then to defang the militants. It seems as though Hezbollah will remain with-fangs at the conclusion of hostilities -- if there is even a conclusion.

I have a feeling that Nasrallah will balk just long enough to provoke more airstrikes from Israel and more rocket fire will result. This is exactly the sort of temporary ceasefire that Bush and Olmert seemed to denounce in the middle of this strange war.