Thursday, April 13, 2006

Speak softly. Carry big stick. Save money at the pump.

I can think of a number of reasons why the situation with Iran requires more quiet diplomacy than this administration seems capable of conducting. Iran is, by estimates, a decade away from the necessary steps to build a bomb. Foreign powers have acted, though not always on the same page with the White House, in a promising manner. Our current disposition in Iraq leaves us vulnerable to immediate military action -- which is not necessary based on the above assumptions.

Those reasons are all inter-related and derive from global politics. The other major reason to be diplomatically prudent with Iran is the cost of oil and energy in general. We know from the experience of last year's Gulf hurricanes that the cost of oil can increase quickly. The effects are well known as well.

The nuclear impasse is not the only source of high oil prices. But, they are a source. TMCNet:
"The ongoing Nigerian output losses and continued concern over Iran are unlikely to be resolved in the near future," the IEA said in its monthly report. "For now, actual and potential supply disruptions and falling US product stock levels are driving the oil price rally."
It is sound diplomatically to incremently increase pressure on Iran, and to not stoke the oil market with tough public talk -- tough public talk that is dubious militarily.

2 Comments:

Blogger Dr Victorino de la Vega said...

Hi C.E.

You surely raise some interesting issues here.
For many reasons, the Iran pill will be hard to swallow...but with Gargantuan Wilsonian fools with nukes still calling the shots in Washington, anything can happen!

Basically the Neocons are now trying desperately to rebuild the Arab/Iranian geopolitical balance that they had deliberately destroyed in the first place by toppling Saddam´s secular regime.

I guess that’s what self-proclaimed ´universal fascists´ such as Mike Ledeen call ´creative chaos´ whatever that means...

Faster please!

6:58 AM  
Blogger copy editor said...

Thanks. A fellow blogger on this site made a note earlier in the week that got me thinking.

The highest form of generalship, according to Sun Tzu, is to attack your enemy's plans. Cheney, Bush and Rummy are not capable of that, but we can think on Iran's plans. What if they intend just ("just"...) to build the capability to quickly assemble nukes?

I think Iran's present course is far more complex than the administration makes it out to be. I am still wondering what motivates the Persians.

If you do not know the motive, you do not know the enemy.

11:42 AM  

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